The French Connection

The deceased Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri was a very close personal friend of Jaques Chirac, and apparently contributed heavily to Chirac's re-election campaigns; Chirac awarded Hariri the Grand Cross of the Legion of Honor, France's most prestigious award in 1996. (Who says that political kickbacks are just for Americans, eh?)

With this in mind, an astute pol/mil blogger would do well to keep an eye on the main anchorages of the French Navy, for they have four LPDs, of which the two latest, the Foudre class, each can land and support an entire mechanized/armored regiment of the French Rapid Deployment Force.

So keep an eye on those ships; if they sail, the probability of a French intervention in Lebanon rises dramatically.